Two races still hanging fire

This scenario would put Republicans right at the six-seat gain they need to control the Senate. But they may not be there as of Wednesday morning if Alaska remains uncalled and dependent on absentee ballot counts that could take weeks. And there will be two races still hanging fire.

Louisiana is going to a Dec. 6th runoff barring some big surprise. And if Republican Bill Cassidy wins the runoff, as we think he will, GOP control of the Senate will be cemented on Dec 7th. However, we also think Georgia Senate is going to a Jan. 6th runoff. So if incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu manages to hold on in Louisiana, Democrats would have a chance to hang on to the Senate if they can push Michelle Nunn to victory in the Georgia runoff.

Still, the M.M. bottom line: Republicans finish plus 6 in the Senate after Tuesday’s vote and then lock down the majority Dec. 6th in Louisiana. Republicans are likely to gain a dozen or so House seats. Democrats will probably get their best headlines out of governor’s races where they will likely retake Pennsylvania and possibly Florida, among others. Barring a massive surprise, Republicans will still be the clear winners on Election Night. And then we can all turn to gaming out the likely direction of Washington policy with GOP in full (though not filibuster-proof) control on the Hill.

GRISLY NEWS FOR OBAMA — Stuart Rothenberg in Roll Call: “President Barack Obama is about to do what no president has done in the past 50 years: Have two horrible, terrible, awful midterm elections in a row. In fact, Obama is likely to have the worst midterm numbers of any two-term president going back to Democrat Harry S. Truman.

Truman lost a total of 83 House seats during his two terms … Obama had one midterm where his party lost 63 House seats, and Democrats are expected to lose another 5 to possibly 12 House seats (or more), taking the sitting president’s total midterm House loses to the 68 seat to 75 seat range.

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